From Wednesday, Germany will go into lockdown for the second time – until January 10th. Bank representatives now fear a second recession.
The economic risks for Germany have increased because the retail trade is being closed, say bank representatives.
The gross domestic product will shrink in the current fourth quarter.
The German economy should catch up again in spring 2021.
According to economists, the German economy is threatened with another recession due to the new lockdown measures that will apply from Wednesday. “Germany has to prepare for a second recession,” said Commerzbank chief economist Jörg Krämer on Sunday the Reuters news agency. “The economic risks have increased significantly because the retail trade is an important sales channel for German industry.”
It is becoming more apparent than ever that the gross domestic product will shrink in the current fourth quarter. “We expect a minus of a good one percent compared to the third quarter,” said Krämer. Since a large part of the beginning of 2021 is likely to be affected by at least a soft lockdown, he expects a renewed decline in economic output for the first quarter.
Decrease of up to 1.8 percent
The Berenberg Bank assumes that the economy will shrink by 1.8 percent from October to December. So far she had calculated with minus 1.0 percent. “However, we expect the German economy to be able to make up these losses in the second quarter of 2021,” said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding.
“The shock is much less than in the first wave. We can handle a lockdown a lot better than the first time. Manufacturing and exports are hardly affected. ” However, retail will suffer considerably as Christmas shopping will move from the city centers to the Internet.
Contact tracing against economic downtime
So that the economy does not have to be brought to a complete standstill, LBBW chief economist Uwe Burkert considers the success of the tracing app to be necessary. “Then we relieve the health authorities and can keep public life better open,” said the economist. «Here politics must show a clear edge and restrict freedoms.
This requires a commitment with the major network operators. ” Otherwise, the third wave threatens in March. The government should also think about stricter hygiene regulations. “In China, much more stringent hygiene measures are being taken when entering buildings, workplaces, etc.,” said Burkert. The same applies to local public transport.
Commerzbank chief economist Krämer sees it similarly: “The strategy of mere sealing is expensive. We urgently need daily tests in old people’s homes, a powerful Corona app and hygiene concepts in local public transport and school buses. “
In view of the increasing number of infections, the federal and state governments decided that all shops apart from grocery stores and drugstores must close from Wednesday – initially by January 10th. “Based on the experiences of the spring, the hard lockdown is likely to depress the daily added value of the German economy by an estimated four percent, one and a half percentage points more than the soft lockdown that has been in place since the beginning of November,” said Krämer.
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