Where are the parties currently in favor of the electorate, what are their starting positions for the next months, which will be decisive for the election? And how did the trend of opinion develop for the government and the opposition in this legislative period in Berlin?
At the moment, the Greens are back in front after having left the top position to the CDU for a few months. According to a representative survey by pollsters from Civey for the Tagesspiegel, the environmental party has a share of 22.1 percent of the vote. Followed by the Christian Democrats with 19.4 percent, while the SPD and the Left, with 16.8 and 16.7 percent, compete neck and neck for third place.
The Free Democrats, who temporarily slipped below the five percent mark in the polls last year and therefore had to worry about re-entry into the state parliament, recovered slightly by seven percent.
By and large, this survey reflects the federal trend, apart from the fact that the Union is way ahead of the Greens at the federal level. Since the Bundestag election will also take place on September 26, both parties in Berlin are likely to believe that their good values in the Bund will also rub off on the House of Representatives election.
The Berlin SPD, on the other hand, hopes to be able to decouple itself in time from the persistently bad opinion trend at the federal level. We will only know on election night whether all these expectations are realistic.
AfD has lost 3.5 percentage points since the 2016 election
But how have the parties in Berlin fared in the entire period in office of Red-Red-Green since the House of Representatives election in September 2016? Let’s take the overall balance first: the CDU was able to gain almost two percentage points when comparing the last election results with the most recent poll.
The big winners are therefore the Greens, the big losers the SPD.
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During this legislative period, the left, FDP and AfD were shown to be fairly stable in favor of the voters. This could indicate a relatively loyal voter base that does not readily switch to other parties or to the non-voter camp. This is not the case with the Berlin Greens, whose polls have fluctuated between “saddened to death” and “cheering up high” since the last election. For more than two years, however, only the CDU has managed to displace the Greens from pole position, at least temporarily. Now the climate protectors are back in front.
It is interesting that the trend curves of the Greens on the one hand and the SPD and CDU on the other are contrary. Roughly speaking: if the environmental party goes up, the others go underground. Apparently, in their good times, the Greens draw groups of voters from the Social and Christian Democrats over to them, who migrate back in times of weakness.
Incidentally, the long-term opinion trends in Berlin largely follow the surveys at the federal level. According to all experience, the results of state elections only deviate clearly from federal elections if individual parties succeed in making themselves attractive to supporters of the other parties with outstanding top staff.
In Berlin, the SPD recently managed to stay above the national trend of its own party with Klaus Wowereit in the 2011 parliamentary elections. Before that, it was the CDU top candidates Eberhard Diepgen in the election in 1999 and Richard von Weizsäcker in 1981.
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Civey poll Berlin election Greens pass CDU SPD place Berlin