Assuming an economic recovery, capital market experts expect a good year for stocks, announced three institutes in press conferences on Tuesday.
Fritz Mostböck from Erste Group sees enormous catching-up potential in the Vienna share index (ATX) because the ATX, due to its composition (Central and Eastern Europe, banks, insurance companies) performed worse than other indices in 2020 and is therefore undervalued. According to the analyst, the ATX should benefit particularly from the economic recovery this year. He sets the ATX price target for the end of 2021 at 3250 points (currently at 2942).
His institute expects the average dividend yield to normalize at an “attractive three percent plus”. Only the banks will not distribute any profits at least in the first half of the year due to the corona rules of the ECB. For comparison: the profit yield on a ten-year Austrian government bond is minus 0.45 percent.
Furthermore, “the expansionary monetary policy will be maintained, the zero interest rate environment favors stocks”. Head analyst Christoph Schultes recommends AT&S, Andritz, RBI, Immofinanz and voestalpine as individual titles on the Vienna stock exchange. However, it will not be enough this year to fully reach the pre-crisis profit level. But for 2022 Schultes sees a “complete recovery in profits”.
Alois Wögerbauer, managing director of the fund company 3-Banken-Generali, set up “10 guard rails” again this year in order to sail safely through the tide of the capital markets. This includes the low inflation with at most a short-term flare-up in the second half of 2021. He also sees a catching-up process for the Vienna leading index in the coming weeks; Asian stocks and sustainable investments would continue to perform well. Erich Stadlberger, Head of Private Banking at Oberbank, expects “a small revival in Europe in the next few years” on the capital markets compared to the USA.
The investment experts at Spängler Bank urge caution with regard to the currently overwhelming optimism on the stock markets, even if they expect inflation to remain low in 2021. An end to the pandemic would not end the expansionary monetary policy and low interest rate policy, the bond purchase programs would be continued. (uru)
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