Growth is coming, but not for all industries


Berlin. Strong growth in the hospitality and automotive industries, declines in mining: According to the Prognos Institute, not all industries will benefit from the expected economic upturn after the Corona crisis. “
The -gap between the weakest and the strongest industry development is greater than ever before,” said Prognos’ chief economist Michael Böhmer.

The -experts believe that the strongest growth this year will be in industries that have been hit particularly hard by the Corona crisis. Mining, coking and mineral oil processing, on the other hand, are likely to continue to shrink due to the significant structural change in these sectors.

Prognos predicts metal industry growth rates

The -hospitality industry, which suffered intermittent closings during the pandemic, could increase its economic output by 28 percent this year, according to the study. For the cultural and creative industries, too, which had to struggle with similar restrictions in 2020, Prognos expects clear double-digit growth rates.

The -prerequisite is that the restrictions are noticeably and permanently eased by spring at the latest and the industries are spared from a wave of bankruptcies.

The -experts also count the auto industry, which should benefit from the global economic recovery, among the growth winners with an expected increase of around 15 percent. However, this could only compensate for less than half of the slump from the crisis year 2020.

In industrial sectors such as mechanical engineering, the textile industry or the metal industry, Prognos predicts exceptionally strong growth rates of 4 to 7 percent.

The -increasing demand from abroad will benefit export-oriented branches of the economy. At the same time, the demand for capital goods from these industries will rise again in Germany.

According to Prognos, the manufacturers of consumer goods will benefit from increasing consumer mood. Economic and labor market policy measures had largely stabilized private household incomes during the crisis.

Prognos expects a dynamic economic upswing from spring

Prognos sees solid development in the chemicals and pharmaceuticals sector as well as in a large part of the service industries. Growth rates of “normal” magnitudes of 1 to 3 percent are expected.

The -information and communication service sector is profiting from the digitization trend.

Prognos also expects solid growth for traffic and logistics. Air traffic, which has been hit hard by travel restrictions, is predicted to see a strong plus of around 10 percent. However, this will only make up part of the historical slump from the crisis year.

Prognos anticipates a dynamic economic upswing in Germany from spring onwards and an increase in gross domestic product of 3.9 percent for the year as a whole.

The -economic research and consultancy firm expects that around two thirds of the macroeconomic losses of the crisis can be made good.

Whether and to what extent a company will benefit from the upturn does not only depend on the industry. “Every company has its own economic situation and needs its own analysis,” explained Böhmer. For a mechanical engineering company focusing on the Chinese market, business should have stabilized in the course of 2020. A competitor who mainly delivers to European countries, on the other hand, is likely to experience subdued sales growth into the first half of 2021.

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