Top economist Felbermayr: Corona destroys 600,000 jobs in Germany

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It won’t all be okay either”: Top economist: Corona destroys 600,000 jobs in Germany – especially in two industries

At the end of 2021, the economy will return to the level it was before the corona pandemic, says economist Gabriel Felbermayr. But he also sees problems in the aftermath, especially for tourism and aviation.

Because of the corona pandemic, according to the economist Gabriel Felbermayr around 600,000 jobs will be lost in Germany. The hardest hit areas are areas that have already been subject to structural change, such as the aviation and tourism industriessaid the head of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy of the German Press Agency. “ In a decarbonised world, aviation would have to shrink anyway. Corona anticipates a lot and does it sustainably.”

The economist sees lasting consequences in tourism, which is important for Schleswig-Holstein and other coastal states. “ Not everything will be all right there either,” said Felbermayr. “ In private tourism, the rebound will be very clear: people want to go to the coasts and into the mountains.” However, there is a clear structural change in business tourism. “There will be fewer flights and less congress tourism.” This applies especially to city hotels. Instead, online communication is becoming more important.

If the state helps companies, it is as fair as possible”

“The pandemic will change retail in the long term,” said Felbermayr. In the course of digitization, some sections of the population made their first purchases on the Internet. They are currently seeing that credit card payments do not necessarily end in fraud and that goods arrive undamaged. “ Some of these reservations will probably disappear. For the retail trade in city centers and in shopping centers, the crisis is not over even if the infection rate actually allows a return to the city center.”

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With a view to the aid announced by politicians, Felbermayr said that replacing the loss in sales might be suitable for the catering industry. “ But if you replace sales in retail, there is a risk of massive overcompensation. After all, retail will not even buy goods that it cannot sell in lockdown.” For these companies, the aid is too generous, at least in the long term. “ When the state helps companies, it is as fair as possible.”

The Kiel Institute expects the gross domestic product to increase by 3.1 percent this year. “ If the pandemic subsides in the summer, the economy will reach the pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of next year,” said Felbermayr. The normalization of the employment level is expected a little later.

Since January 1st: Because online shopping is supposed to be safer, new rules now apply

cvh / dpa

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