FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) – In the new week, the German stock market will probably have to be judged by the high expectations of investors. The focus should be on developments in the USA with the first steps under the new presidency of Joe Biden. Market observers have recently been speaking of a “blue wave” on which investors rode. By this they mean the recent successes of the US Democrats, led by Biden, based on their party colors.
According to market expert Robert Halver from Baader Bank, the future will be paid for on the stock markets – with a hoped-for economic upswing from the middle of the year. Against this background, poorer economic data due to the lockdown could temporarily dampen investor sentiment and result in profit-taking in the meantime. “Dramatic price drops are not to be expected.
The economic optimism of large institutional investors remains high,” said Halver.
The inauguration of Joe Biden in connection with the trillion dollar economic stimulus package he was aiming for had recently helped many indexes to set new records. In the USA this was true for all major stock market barometers, in Germany with the MDAX and SDAX at least for the second and third series of stock exchanges.
The Dax (DAX 30) had already set a record of 14 131 points two weeks ago, but in addition to the vaccination campaigns, the hope for further state and central bank aid was also a price driver.
The European vaccine pioneer Biontech (BioNTech (ADRs)) and its partner Pfizer will now deliver fewer doses for a week, so that major vaccine advances in Germany should be postponed until February.
According to Helaba economist Claudia Windt, the “tightening light” of the current lockdown in Germany is dampening expectations of economic growth in the first quarter. However, the expert sees a ray of hope in the declining new infections in some places – especially in the USA and Great Britain, but also in Germany.
The opposite is the case in Portugal, for example.
After Biden took office, investment strategist Chris-Oliver Schickentanz from Commerzbank continues to look to the United States, where the reporting season “is now going full steam ahead”. In the coming days, the figures for the final quarter of 2020 are expected for almost half of the values in the Dow Jones Industrial (Dow Jones 30 Industrial). Banks had recently ushered in the season with some positive surprises. According to Schickentanz, however, these are likely to become increasingly difficult and the market effects remain more limited.
The numbers of the first heavyweights are also expected in Europe, some of the key data are already known. Siemens, for example, had already set a positive fragrance mark with strong preliminary figures before the weekend. On Monday, Philips reports first, on Tuesday the major bank UBS, among others, and on Wednesday Software AG (software) and the laboratory equipment supplier Sartorius (Sartorius vz). On Thursday, STMicroelectronics will then turn attention to the chip sector.
In terms of the economy, the Ifo business climate will be the first important publication on Monday in the new week. According to the Dekabank experts headed by chief economist Ulrich Kater, the Ifo barometer is likely to “show a split economy” – with a strong industry on the one hand and ailing service providers on the other. In their opinion, the lockdown is likely to leave its mark on the assessment of the situation.
Otherwise, the next interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve is on the agenda on Wednesday. Experts don’t expect any changes. According to Baader expert Halver, the Fed will signal its readiness to provide further economic support.
The topic of reducing bond purchases being discussed in the markets is a phantom discussion. “Interest is not becoming a natural enemy of stocks,” says Halver./tih/bek/men/edh
— By Timo Hausdorf, dpa-AFX —
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