Dax price current: investor sentiment signals imminent record highs

On today’s trading day, the paradigm shift on the stock exchange continues. Away from technology stocks, towards cyclical values.

 The  technology-heavy TecDax fell by 2.5 percent, significantly more than the other stock market indices.

 The  food delivery services such as Delivery Hero and Hellofresh are among the clear losers with minus 4.8 and 6.1 percent respectively. In the small value index SDax, online retailers such as Home24 and Westwing plummet with a loss of minus twelve and 8.5 percent.

Shares in Lufthansa, Fraport and Airbus, on the other hand, are up between four and five percent. In the SDax, too, with the steel group Salzgitter, an industrial stock tops the winners list with a plus of 4.7 percent.

All sentiment analyzes in this country suggest that new record highs are only a matter of time. According to the analysis of the Sentix experts, there is a tactical buy signal for the Dax and behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg also sees a good starting point for price gains for German blue chips after evaluating the Frankfurt Stock Exchange survey last week.

And for the sentiment expert Stephan Heibel, according to the evaluation of the Handelsblatt survey Dax-Sentiment, the situation looks like this: “In this situation, it takes courage to enter at the current price level.” Weeks improved.

Whenever prices rise, a so-called bubble on the stock markets is discussed, which is likely to burst soon and cause the stock markets to crash. Currently has Ray Dalio, head of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, spoke up. Yesterday, Monday, he dug up his “bubble indicator” from business news service Bloomberg and found that around five percent of the top 1,000 companies in the US are rated at an “unsustainable level”.

 The  discussion is not new: in January of this year, according to a survey by Bank of America, international fund managers feared the risk of bubbles forming on the stock markets, albeit without a precise definition.

 The ir reaction at the time: Despite the risk of a bubble forming, the fund managers were more risk-taking and bought more shares.

 The  greed was just bigger than the fear. What turned out to be correct in retrospect.

It is extremely difficult and even impossible to find out the exact time when such a bubble burst. Especially since there is no precise definition. In the past few months, a high cash quota or speculating on drastically falling prices would have cost a lot of money in the first place.

 The  head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, presented his monetary policy report to congressional committees this Monday.

 The  focus is on the yield on US government bonds. This value has more than doubled since August last year.

This rise in interest rates is due, on the one hand, to the general economic recovery after the corona low, and, on the other, to the expectation of rapidly increasing inflation.

Investors are currently receiving 1.3687 pa when buying a US government bond with a term of ten years.

 The  value is close to the previous high of the past twelve months, which was reached yesterday Monday at 1.3925 percent. However, it is extremely unlikely that Powell will give signals for a tighter monetary policy.

 The  then Fed chairman Ben Bernanke had done something like that in May 2013 by announcing that he would reduce bond purchases (“taper tantrum”). As a result, bond prices collapsed and yields soared. This triggered a kind of shock wave on the global financial markets, which led to severe price distortions, especially in the emerging countries.

Even if a similar case should occur today, Monday:

 The  graph for 2013/2014 shows:

 The  price slide after the Taper Tantrum at the time was, in retrospect, an ideal time to start.

Look at the individual values

Heidelberg Cement: Despite the burden of the corona pandemic, the building materials group increased its operating profit last year. Adjusted operating profit increased by 6.1 percent to 3.7 billion euros.

 The  company did a little better than analysts expected.

 The  first lockdown in spring caused sales and turnover to collapse, which was not fully made up over the course of the year.

 The  share is down 2.4 percent.

Flatexdegiro:

 The  high customer growth of the Frankfurt online broker suggests that an extremely large number of new traders are involved in the market. “We continue to see an enormously strong development in customer growth and trading activity,” said CEO Frank Niehage. By the end of the year, the number of customers is to rise to 1.8 to two million from 1.25 million customers at the end of 2020.

 The  transactions carried out are expected to be between 75 and 90 million in 2021, compared to 75 million last year.

 The  numbers are also reflected in the development of the share price. In the past three months, the paper rose by more than 68 percent, but today there is significant profit-taking:

 The  paper is slipping by ten percent.

Rational:

 The  shares of the commercial kitchen supplier Rational are heading for the largest daily loss in more than six years. After a cautious outlook, the share certificates break more than ten percent and are thus at the top of the MDax losers. After the sales and profit slump in the Corona year 2020, the group does not yet expect a radical recovery.

What the Dax chart technology says

 The  German benchmark index is currently hanging between two price gaps: Last Wednesday, a small downward price gap was torn compared to the quotations on Tuesday, between 14,050 points and 14,036 meters there was no quotation during regular trading hours. This gap is now considered the first resistance if the Dax should rise again above the 14,000 point mark.

On the downside, the upside gap from late January is still intact. Such upward price gaps arise when the highest level on one trading day is below the lowest level on the following day.

 The  opposite applies to downward price gaps.

This upward price gap in numbers: on Monday last week, the highest Dax price was 13,648 points, the lowest price on Tuesday last week was 13,693 points.

 The  support, which is even more important from a chart technical point of view, is just below that with 13,500 meters. This mark formed resistance for months last year that was not overcome until December. That is why the resistance has turned into support.

 The  leading index only fell below this once at the close of trading this year.

Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops & flops in the Dax.