Alexander Mellmann, Director of the Institute for Hygiene at the University Hospital in Münster, explains why this is a problem: “ The modeling suggests that with a higher R value, as we observe with the B.1.1.7 variant, there is a background slowly building up a third wave – that’s realistic. ”
Modeling of the Science Media Center makes it clear how decisive the growth rate of B.1.1.7 is for the overall incidence. If variant B.1.1.7 spreads with a growth rate of ten percent, the number of cases – if the previous measures were retained, i.e. without the planned easing – would not increase for a few more weeks. The incidence would continue to slowly decrease.