Virus variant: The growth rate determines the third wave


Se since the last week of January, the normal corona smears have been systematically searched for the new variants. According to the Robert Koch Institute, it was found that four were found in 5.2 percent of the samples B.1.1.7 in calendar week. In calendar week six, the variant was already included in 22 percent of the samples, a rapid increase – and that despite the prevailing lockdown. B.1.1.7 supersedes the other variants.

Alexander Mellmann, Director of the Institute for Hygiene at the University Hospital in Münster, explains why this is a problem: “ The  modeling suggests that with a higher R value, as we observe with the B.1.1.7 variant, there is a background slowly building up a third wave – that’s realistic. ”

Modeling of the Science Media Center makes it clear how decisive the growth rate of B.1.1.7 is for the overall incidence. If variant B.1.1.7 spreads with a growth rate of ten percent, the number of cases – if the previous measures were retained, i.e. without the planned easing – would not increase for a few more weeks. © The  incidence would continue to slowly decrease.

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Virus variant growth rate determines wave


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