Are we facing a third wave? And when will the pandemic finally end? Here you can read what has to happen now for 2021 to be a good year.
For how much longer?
Corona spoils our lives. And the overriding question is: how much longer? The lockdown, which has been in place since the beginning of November, is constantly being extended, now until March 7th – and hardly anyone expects more that really more will be opened than daycare centers, schools (for children up to 12 and graduating classes). Politicians and talk show virologists were already warning in mid-February that we should definitely not expect any kind of Easter vacation. Hotels, restaurants, cafes are likely to stay on Easter.
The n the lockdown would have extended into the second quarter of 2021.
The vaccines may not work against them. Presumably they will soon be the dominant variant.
What are the benefits of the sun, rapid tests and vaccinations?
So will Germany continue to work its way from lockdown to lockdown? Will the “No-Covid” group enforce even stricter restrictions? Or will the sun, rapid tests and vaccinations break the knot and at least create conditions like in summer 2020?
The positive list could include:
- We get more vaccine and better vaccination planning. In this way we achieve herd immunity before the next winter.
The number of infections is falling and the intensive care units with corona patients are emptying again.
- Heat and sun, the natural enemies of all coronaviruses, also affect Sars-CoV-2 and its mutants.
- A step-by-step plan for relaxation with binding guidelines for the whole of Germany is being implemented. When the numbers remain stable, life normalizes; in risk areas restrictions remain or come into force again.
- Relaxations are picking up speed and the social mood is brightening.
The experts with an optimistic view of the future assume that the pandemic will be over by the end of the year.
Relaxation as soon as it gets warmer?
The re could be a significant relaxation in new infections when it gets warmer. Sars-CoV-2 belongs to the coronavirus family. If it behaves like the other domestic coronaviruses, and I assume that the numbers will increase again by next fall at the latest. In May and through the summer they will remain at a low level. “
Friedemann Weber, head of virology at the University of Giessen, recently made a positive forecast when asked: “If the lockdown measures and the vaccines bring the pandemic under control soon, then spring should be noticeably more carefree, summer almost normal again, and autumn as good as normal. “
The negative list could include:
The n time-consuming adjustments are necessary.
The re are high incidences due to new, more dangerous variants, and more patients than ever have to be treated in intensive care units.
The summer heat can no longer harm the mutants.
The lockdown restrictions remain in place – the population no longer takes part.
Do the mutations have an impact?
The more pessimistic voices expect another violent wave of infections by autumn 2021 at the latest, because only a small part of the population will be immunized by then. Real relaxation can therefore only be expected in 2022. SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach is certain: “
The pandemic is by no means over by the end of 2021.”
Charité virologist Christian Drosten, who was still confident in November because the new vaccines would ease the corona situation in 2021 and people could then move and behave “largely normally”, now paints in an interview with “Spiegel” a gloomy picture:
The n significantly more people would be infected with the virus again within a very short time than one could currently imagine.
The virologist Melanie Brinkmann, who belongs to the “No-Covid” group and wants to bring the incidences towards zero before they can be relaxed, stated in the “Spiegel”: “We never get enough people vaccinated before the mutants have an impact.” Loosening up more would mean pushing a massive wave of infections after Easter.
How quickly the vaccination situation improves depends on the vaccine quota
Everyone from the Minister of Health to the last person willing to vaccinate is saying that vaccination has to pick up speed in Germany. Since the start of vaccination on December 27th up to and including February 21st, 3.3 million people in Germany have received their first vaccination dose, that is four percent of the population – too little for herd immunity anytime soon.
Infectiologist Clemens Wendtner recently calculated for the editorial network Germany: “Even if 100,000 people received a vaccination every day of the week, Monday to Sunday, only around 35 million of 83 million people would be protected by the end of 2021. That is less than half that Residents of Germany. “
Vaccinating faster than the virus spreads – these are also the wishes and demands of leading virologists in view of the more contagious mutants.
How quickly the vaccination situation improves depends primarily on the vaccine contingent that Germany is entitled to from the EU order. By the end of March, 10.3 million cans from Biontech, 1.8 million from Moderna and 5.6 million from Astrazeneca are expected. Since two syringes are required for each vaccinated, that’s enough for almost nine million people.
The situation eased in the second quarter because the vaccines already ordered by the US manufacturer Johnson & Johnson and Curevac in Heidelberg will in all likelihood receive approval from the European Medical Agency EMA and will then be able to be delivered in millions immediately.
Step by step out of lockdown
With the loosening of the lockdown, nobody can and does not want to wait until the last person who wants to be vaccinated has his or her injection. So that it can be done as quickly as possible, a nationwide plan should specify the opening scenario. Chancellor Angela Merkel is proposing reports for an opening plan in three areas.
Schleswig-Holstein’s Prime Minister Daniel Günther already had a four-stage exit plan with him at the meeting on February 10 in the Chancellery.
The step-by-step plan is based on the seven-day incidence, i.e. how many new infections there were in one week in a district per 100,000 inhabitants.
Lower Saxony’s “Step-by-Step Plan 2.0” with its six-fold traffic light sees similar step-by-step openings. In addition to the relaxation, this plan emphasizes strict restrictions if the infection situation worsens.
All those responsible still know too little about the spread and dynamics of the Sars-CoV-2 mutants. But they could decide whether 2021 will be a terrible pandemic year or the start of a corona-free future. After the emergence of the virus variants, however, it is questionable whether the pandemic will end quickly.
More news about life and Corona
Everyday life is a challenge in a crisis. We have put together inspiration, suggestions and messages for you as a user here: