The corona situation in Austria is getting worse. According to current forecasts, the numbers will also increase in Vorarlber.
The experts, who prepare a weekly Covid forecast for the Ministry of Health, anticipate an increasing burden and new highs in hospital capacities in the east. According to the prognosis, 630 Covid-19 patients across Austria will need intensive medical care in two weeks. Today, Wednesday – exactly as forecast by the experts – 447.
The situation continues to develop dramatically, especially in Vienna, Lower Austria and Burgenland. As the experts emphasized, regardless of any measures taken, including vaccinations, the increase in the deposit will continue over the next two to four weeks. The strongest increase is expected for Vienna from currently 168 to 260 required intensive care beds within the next two weeks, in the worst case even up to 320 and thus more than the 310 intensive care beds planned in level eight. Vienna is thus well above the system-critical utilization limit of 33 percent of total intensive care beds.
More intensive care patients
There will be more intensive care patients in all federal states. Burgenland is already at the critical limit of a third, in Lower Austria this will be exceeded in the next few days, this is also possible in Upper Austria. In the normal wards, an increase to 2,221 patients is expected by April 7th – an additional 600 sick people. On Tuesday, the occupancy of beds usable for Covid patients in the federal states was already 55.8 percent, based on the total bed capacity of 2,006 beds, the occupancy was 21.8 percent. The forecast foresees an increase to 31.4 percent. For this reason, elective interventions are already being postponed again in several federal states.
Hospitalization assumptions are based on Austrian observations. Accordingly, 3.72 percent of all infected people have to be treated in the hospital, 1.45 end up in the intensive care unit, most of them a week after the positive test. The further increase in hospital patients is due to the further spread of the corona mutants. The prognosis of the intensive surface already includes all the effects to be expected from the vaccination.
7-day incidence in Vorarlberg will probably rise to 120
With regard to the number of infections, the experts forecast an increase to an average of 4,100 new infections per day by next Wednesday. By March 31, 4,500 new cases are to be feared within 24 hours. Then a seven-day incidence of 328 per 100,000 population is also expected. The development in the individual federal states is very different. The seven-day incidence next Wednesday ranges from 119 in Vorarlberg until 448 in Vienna, according to the consortium.
It was not yet possible to clarify what this development could mean for the federal capital. In principle, if the seven-day incidence exceeds 400, a comprehensive regulation on exit controls would have to be issued at the state level. What was and is feasible in individual high-incidence districts may simply not be feasible in the 1.9 million metropolis of Vienna with tens of thousands of commuters from the surrounding area every day. Neither the Ministry of Health nor the City of Vienna wanted to comment on what would be expected if Vienna jumps over 400 when asked by the APA. Corresponding measures would be taken for the entire eastern region, which should be presented on Wednesday evening, it said.
Reproduction number at 1.1
The effective reproductive number has remained unchanged in the past few days at a level of around 1.1. The prognoses assume a continuation of this trend, which manifests itself in a steady increase in the incidence. The reason is due to the mutations that now also dominate in Vorarlberg. For the most part, this is the British variant B.1.1.7.