“Sure, that could be 100,000 a day,” said Wieler, referring to the dramatically increasing number of cases. All indicators indicated that the third wave could get worse than the first and second! Therefore, from the point of view of infection protection, a harder lockdown than in spring 2020 is necessary.
A model calculation by experts from the Technical University led by scientist Kai Nagel also assumes that the third wave will lead to a significantly higher incidence.
The experts are particularly looking at the opening of schools and daycare centers after the Easter break. Should this take place in view of the current infection rate at the current vaccination rate and without comprehensive corona test options, the scientists expect an incidence value of around 2000 as early as May!
That reports the “Tagesspiegel”.
▶︎ Particularly dramatic: According to the simulations, the so-called corona emergency brake (tightening of the corona measures with an incidence value above 100), the progressive vaccinations and warmer spring weather could no longer prevent the increase!
The Covid simulator of the University of Saarbrücken, which models infection scenarios, is based on the current infection rate, meanwhile, from an incidence value of more than 400 as early as April 24th.
The federal government, meanwhile, is calling for the “emergency brake” to be strictly implemented – while several federal states are working on opening scenarios.
Spahn: Need “a real shutdown of our contacts, our mobility”
► Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn (40, CDU) said there was a risk that in April the hospitals could again reach their capacity limits if the number of infections rises.
He thinks another lockdown of 10 to 14 days is necessary!
“If we take the numbers, including the developments today, we actually need another 10 or 14 days to really shut down our contacts, our mobility,” said Spahn on Saturday at an online discussion event organized by the federal government, where citizens could ask questions.
The number of intensive care patients registered with the German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive and Emergency Medicine (Divi) rose to 3323 people on Friday. On Friday, the RKI reported another sharp increase in numbers. The Federal Foreign Office published travel warnings due to high numbers of infections in the neighboring countries of France, Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic.
Individual federal states have announced model tests in which certain openings, for example in retail, should be possible when customers submit negative tests. North Rhine-Westphalia, for example, does not follow the rigid Corona “emergency brake”.
► Districts and urban districts with an incidence of more than 100, but which have a sufficient number of free corona tests, can, for example, allow shopping (Click & Meet) if a negative test is presented. This should be an incentive for the municipalities to test more. This emerges from the country’s new Corona Protection Ordinance, which will come into force on March 29.
Countries such as Saarland, Bavaria or Saxony-Anhalt announced model projects in which opening steps are combined with increased testing. The Association of Towns and Municipalities endorsed the plans for far-reaching corona easing in Saarland as the “right approach”.
Spahn calls for a faster vaccination rate
Health Minister Spahn appealed to the federal states to also inoculate the stocks of vaccines more quickly. Because more vaccine doses would be delivered in April than in the whole of the first quarter, there is less need to hold stocks for the second vaccination. Instead, more people should be vaccinated.
So it is possible that over 70-year-olds are given non-vaccinated doses on the weekends. “That gives the vaccination regulation easily,” said Spahn. The background to this are reports of hundreds of thousands of unused vaccine doses. Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder announced that deviations from the previous vaccination priorities should be discussed at a vaccination summit in the state.
RKI boss Wieler said that one had to be prepared for the fact that people would have to be vaccinated again in a few months because of the virus variants. Because of the variants, it is also necessary that as many people in the world as possible are vaccinated. Spahn said that especially the mRNA vaccines from Biontech and Moderna could be adapted relatively quickly to new variants.